Decision Day For Voters: Scots Go To Polls

By Jon Craig, Chief Political Correspondent

Scottish people have started voting in a referendum that will change Britain forever, whatever the outcome.

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond was pictured outside Ritchie Hall polling station in Strichen, Aberdeenshire, after polls opened this morning.

Gordon Brown outside a polling station in Fife

Meanwhile, former PM Gordon Brown was photographed with No campaigners outside the polling station at North Queensferry Community Centre, Fife. 

Elsewhere, long queues began to form outside polling stations across the country.

A Yes vote at the end of a hard-fought campaign will bring an end to the Union of the United Kingdom that has stood for 307 years.

Voters will be asked a simple question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Alex Salmond heads for a polling station in Aberdeenshire

Four million people will take part in the referendum which is expected to produce a turnout as high as 90%.

More than 2,600 schools, sports centres and local halls have opened their doors to voters.

After the polls close at 10pm tonight, counting of the votes takes place at 32 regional centres all over Scotland and then once each result is in, the numbers will be sent to the main counting centre in Edinburgh.

The earliest declarations, at around 2am on Friday, will include North Lanarkshire, Orkney, East Lothian and Perth and Kinross.

The latest, at 6am, is expected to be Aberdeen. Dundee is expected at 3am and Edinburgh and Glasgow at 5am.

:: Watch live: Scottish referendum coverage from 9pm on Sky News Sky 501, Virgin Media 602, Freesat 202, Freeview 132.

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Scotland: Keep Up With Events As They Unfold

Polls have opened in Scotland but what next? Here is the timetable of what to expect over the next 24 hours and where you can find our correspondents.

Thursday:

7am Polling stations open.

7.30am Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon votes in Broomhouse, Glasgow.

9am Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond to cast his vote in Fraserburgh, Aberdeenshire, while Gordon Brown votes in North Queensferry.

9.30am Better Together campaign leader Alistair Darling votes in Edinburgh.

9pm A Sky News special programme dedicated to the referendum begins.

10pm Polls close.

Midnight The counting of ballot papers gets under way across Scotland's 32 local authorities.

Throughout the day, Sky News correspondents will be reporting from Scotland as voters go to the polls. During the morning, political correspondent Anushka Asthana will be in Glasgow before political editor Faisal Islam takes over from Holyrood, Edinburgh, at midday. Scotland bureau chief James Matthews begins reports from 3pm.  

Friday:

2am First seven councils expected to declare their results: East Lothian, Inverclyde, Moray, North Lanarkshire, the Orkney Islands, Perth and Kinross and the Western Isles.

2.30am Clackmannanshire votes declared.

3am Aberdeenshire, Angus, Dumfries and Galloway, Dundee, East Ayrshire, East Renfrewshire, Falkirk, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire, Stirling and West Dunbartonshire to declare - that will bring counting to just under half the votes to be counted.

3.30am Midlothian, Shetland, South Ayreshire, Argyll, West Lothian and East Dunbartonshire to declare.

4am Fife and Highland to declare.

4.30am North Ayrshire will declare votes.

5am Declarations expected from the Scottish Borders, Edinburgh and Glasgow. Final outcome may now be clear.

6am Aberdeen will be the last to declare.

7am: Chief counting officer Mary Pitcaithly expected to announce result from the Royal Highland Centre in Ingliston outside Edinburgh.

Overnight and into the morning Sky News correspondents and presenters provide detailed coverage and analysis of the poll.  Adam Boulton reports on the central count at the Royal Highland Centre, in Ingliston, Edinburgh, while fellow anchor Kay Burley reports on the count from Glasgow. Niall Paterson reports on the Aberdeenshire count, while Mark White covers North Lanarkshire. Rachel Younger covers Orkney and Jon Craig covers Dundee. Meanwhile, Anushka Asthana reports from the No campaign HQ in Glasgow and Faisal Islam from the Yes HQ in Edinburgh. Throughout the night our correspondents will also provide analysis from Westminster and Sky News HQ in west London.   

:: Watch live: Scottish referendum coverage from 9pm on Sky News Sky 501, Virgin Media 602, Freesat 202, Freeview 132.

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Rush To Beat Vacuum Ban Drives Shop Sales Up

A rush to buy high-powered vacuum cleaners to beat an EU ban helped push UK retail sales higher in August.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said it measured a surge in sales last month as new rules meant that from September 1, companies were unable to manufacture or import any vacuums with motors above 1,600 watts.

The move was designed to boost energy efficiency and tackle climate change - with the EU insisting the law would not have an impact on cleanliness as the motor's power did not determine its efficiency.

The ONS said it also noticed a 23.4% leap in furniture sales on the same period last year - with desks and flat-pack furniture leading the way as students prepared for a new university academic year.

Total retail sales rose 3.9% on the year last month, the ONS said, with volumes 0.4% higher than in July.

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Emotional Tug Of Freedom Against Economic Risk

By Faisal Islam, Political Editor

The Prime Minister has signed off from the independence referendum campaign with a final speech in Aberdeen.

Facing a friendly audience of Scottish pensioners, oil executives and Conservatives, the Prime Minister pleaded with Scots to reject independence in the too-close-to-call referendum on Thursday.

Arriving to a slick marketing video featuring three centuries of historic achievements of the Union - from Pankhurst to Wilberforce and Darwin to the British Lions - an emotional PM told the audience: "We want you to stay. Head and heart and soul, we want you to stay.

Alex Salmond: "Cameron's prints are all over a scaremongering campaign"

"Please don't mix up the temporary and the permanent. Please don't think 'I'm frustrated with politics right now, so I'll walk out the door and never come back'.

"If you don't like me - I won't be here forever. If you don't like this Government - it won't last forever. But if you leave the UK - that will be forever.

"Yes, the different parts of the UK don't always see eye-to-eye. Yes, we need change - and we will deliver it. But to get that change, to get a brighter future, we don't need to tear our country apart."

There would be no "trial separation" but the prospect of a "painful divorce" for the UK under a Yes vote.

The PM's key message, though, was of "safer change". The status quo was not on the ballot paper. He reassured his audience that a No vote would trigger "a major, unprecedented programme of devolution with additional powers for the Scottish Parliament", that Gordon Brown's timetable of delivery by January was "set in stone".

He said it amounted to an offer of guaranteed change for the Scottish people without losing the "UK pension, the UK pound and the UK passport".

The question, of course, is whether the Scottish people are going to trust such promises, as there's a history of that type of thing not being delivered by Westminster.

Some Conservative backbenchers are very nervous of the promises offered to keep Scotland in the Union. In an interview with Sky News Tonight, the leader of the Better Together No campaign Alistair Darling addressed this point and said Labour had promised and did deliver the Scottish Parliament.

But few can tell how such late promises are going to go down with many Scottish people distrustful of what they see as a Westminster elite.

Mr Darling also told Sky News of his concern about how the tone of the campaign had soured, and referred to protests by Yes campaigners against journalists as "deeply sinister".

His assessment that some of the campaigns against out-of-favour journalists by the Yes campaign - posters and the like - were "deeply sinister".

He said there was a quiet majority who might be afraid to speak out, who will say "no thanks" to independence on Thursday.

He also said he found it galling that EU nationals get a vote in Scotland whereas Scots who have moved down south don't get a vote. Although he accepted that this was the agreed system for the referendum.

The broader picture, though, is what some politicians are calling the "air war" - big ideas, facts, debates about currency union and devolution - is over.

The next two days of campaigning is all about the "ground war" - getting the vote out and going into people's homes. And this message of Safer Change is very specifically calibrated - not at Yes voters or No voters - but the fact there is a rump of Scots who have a bit of both Yes and No within them.

Alistair Darling told Sky News that the tone of the campaign had "soured"

They are trying to tip that balance away from the emotional tug of freedom for Scotland towards a hard-headed assessment of economic risk.

Earlier, First Minister Alex Salmond visited Edinburgh Airport where he claimed Mr Cameron's "fingerprints are all over a scaremongering" campaign by banks, businesses and leading retailers who have voiced their concerns over independence.

Mr Salmond said: "The next time he [Mr Cameron] comes to Scotland it will not be to love-bomb or engage in desperate last-minute scaremongering, and following a Yes vote it will be to engage in serious post-referendum talks in the best interests of the people of Scotland and the rest of the UK, as pledged in the Edinburgh Agreement."

The Prime Minister, abundantly self-aware that there are limits to the persuasive appeal of any Conservative prime minister in Scotland, will now return to London for the remainder of this closely-fought campaign. The Labour Party will step up its campaign with the return of Opposition leader Ed Miliband on Tuesday.

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Westminster Leaders Pledge 'No' Vote Powers

How Facebook Shaped The Referendum

Updated: 8:27am UK, Tuesday 16 September 2014

By James Matthews, Scotland Correspondent

It's Facebook 'wot might win it.

Sure, the August poll surge in support for independence was down, in part, to traditional campaigning. Meetings and megaphones have thrust the Yes campaign "in yer face" over years leading up to Thursday.

But why, according to the opinion polls, did it all seem to come together in the space of a few weeks? Why, suddenly, the knife-edge?

In the word of a senior Yes strategist: Facebook.

I chatted to him as the Alex Salmond Labour Heartland tour rolled up at its latest venue, playing to the target market through the TV cameras. It was a big, well-attended, photo-call - the staple diet of the political campaign.

As the strategist stood back from the madding crowd, he told me that the magic formula didn't lie in the blood and snotters of a mass media scrum, but in the quiet exploitation of social media. Facebook, in particular.

The challenge for supporters of Scottish independence, historically, has been in turning it from a fringe notion into something people allow themselves to contemplate. Check their election success at the Scottish Parliament to see the considerable style with which that's been accomplished.

Scots have taken the hop and a step. Why, now, might they be shaping to take the jump? 

The Yes strategist pinned it on Facebook.

"Ask yourself," he said, to paraphrase him, "if a parent wants to check on their youngster who's on a night out, what do they do?  They don't phone them, because they probably won't answer.

"They might text ... but, invariably, they'll Facebook them. And when they do, dozens or hundreds of their friends will see it. It's a chat network that plugs people into the other people they value. There are no better opinion-formers for someone than the friends and family they like and trust.

"So, as a campaigning tool, it's been very effective. We encourage Yes supporters to spread the word to their Facebook friends and, over time, you build a network around people that builds a political case.

"Facebook is more effective than Twitter. You put something on Twitter and you reach people within the political bubble. With Facebook, you tap into a far bigger community."

So why the spike in support for Yes after polls that had No with a consistent and strong lead over the course of a two and a half year campaign?

"People just didn't turn their mind to the referendum until it actually came round. It's been in the far distance for most of the campaign but, now that people realise they're getting to decision time, large numbers are now weighing up the arguments ... and they're deciding having had their views on independence softened by Facebook friends."

There were more than 10 million referendum-related interactions on Facebook in the five weeks to September 8 - 85% of which was from Scotland.

He said he reckoned the Yes campaign had been four or five times more active than their opponents on Facebook and pointed out a Facebook chat with Scotland's pro-independence First Minister Alex Salmond attracted around 5,000 questions.

Data suggests the Yes campaign is slightly in the lead with 2.05 interactions in Scotland compared to 1.96 million for the no campaign.

The strategist said the campaigning beauty of social media was that it eliminated the need to rely on mainstream media coverage, that the likes of Facebook cut out the middle man and enabled them to reach out to the voter directly.

Just how many the campaign has touched and what effect it has had, we'll find out soon enough.

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Inflation Slips But House Price Growth Surges

Official figures have charted an easing in the annual rate of inflation but house price growth accelerating to a seven-year high.

Separate releases by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed CPI inflation at 1.5% - falling back from 1.6% the previous month - with the biggest contributions coming from the supermarket price war and falling petrol costs.

The means that while wage growth remains much weaker that the rate of inflation - maintaining the squeeze on earnings - the gap was slightly reduced.

The ONS statistics on house prices however showed that purchasers would need to dig deeper for a deposit.

The average cost of a home rose 11.7% to a new record high of £272,000 in the year to July though annual growth in London slipped slightly to a rate of 19.1% from 19.3% the previous month.

The official ONS figures lag other major market surveys, which have previously suggested that growth levels slowed in August.

But its report showed several UK regions saw property prices reach fresh all-time highs in July.

The East Midlands, West Midlands and South West joined London, the East and the South East in having price levels higher than their pre-financial crisis peaks of 2007/08, the ONS said.

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Scotland: Pub Boss Downs Cost Sceptics

The chairman of pub chain JD Wetherspoon, Tim Martin, has told Sky News he does not share the view that price rises are inevitable if Scotland goes it alone.

His comments will be seen as a boost to the Yes campaign of First Minister Alex Salmond after a string of major banks and retailers warned of potential cost increases under independence from the UK.

Asda and John Lewis said on Thursday that sums would inevitably be passed on to the consumer while BP went as far as to say that it opposed independence.

Sky's City Editor Mark Kleinman reported earlier on Friday that major telecoms firms were considering a similar warning on the issue of costs.

But Mr Martin, whose company operates 67 pubs in Scotland, suggested such statements were premature and "greatly exaggerated".

Mr Martin argues independence is no barrier to success

He told Business Presenter Ian King: "It will entirely depend on the policies that Scotland follows.

"We all know that New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland - small populations, extremely successful economies with their own currencies can do very well - so it becomes a question of what are the policies they're going to have."

For example, Britain is a terribly highly taxed country for pubs and if Scotland were  to say we're going to reduce excise duty to European levels, we're going to have the same VAT for pubs and supermarkets - because it's much higher for pubs in Britain at the moment - beer prices will go down".

He added: "Alex and I could be having a pint together in Vincent Square in Glasgow sometime soon".

Mr Martin, who has not taken sides in the referendum debate, spoke out following the release of the company's preliminary results for its last financial year, which showed record sales as a consequence of new pub openings and longer opening hours.

Profit before tax increased by 3.1% to £79.4m.

Mr Martin said the company generated £600.2m in taxes - the equivalent of £662,000 per pub - and employed an extra 3,000 staff.

He has consistently argued that a more favourable tax regime would allow him to invest more in new pubs and the creation of jobs.

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Scotland: Phone Firms In Independence Warning

A "Yes" vote in the Scottish independence referendum on Thursday could lead to increased costs in the telecommunications industry, leading phone companies have said.

The chief executives of six companies - BT Group, TalkTalk Group, Telefonica UK (O2), Vodafone UK, EE and Three UK - warn in an open letter that a number of "strategic and operational" factors would need to be resolved in the event of Scotland voting to separate from the UK.

Sky's City Editor Mark Kleinman revealed the companies were in talks about a joint statement on the issue on Friday.

In the letter, the companies said they may need to modify networks and consider whether to modify the services offered in an independent Scotland.

Services such as the roll out of faster broadband to parts of Scotland could be affected, the document says.

While the firms said their commitment to providing and investing in high-quality, affordable services to all of their customers in the UK will be "completely unaffected" by the outcome, a number of issues would need to be resolved.

The letter says: "Specifically, we would need to know how a Scottish telecoms industry would be regulated. Would there be continuity with the current European Union regulatory framework so that we would continue to operate across the border with common infrastructure under a single set of rules?

The majority of opinion polls suggest the 'No' camp has the edge

"What approach would the government of an independent Scotland take to the radio spectrum - currently licensed on a UK-wide basis - without which mobile networks cannot operate?

"We may also need to modify our networks to reflect the reality of an independent Scotland; and we may need to consider whether to modify the services offered in Scotland, given its relatively demanding topography and relatively low population density.

"Any of these factors could lead to increased industry costs."

The companies said that they remain "fully committed" to their customers, employees and operations in Scotland whatever the outcome of the poll.

The referendum campaign has entered its final weekend

The warning comes after a number of retailers said customers would face higher prices in the event of independence.

Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont said: "We now have clear warnings from some of the largest employers in Scotland - Asda, John Lewis, B&Q, Marks and Spencer, Timpson, BT, TalkTalk, Iceland, O2, Vodafone, EE, Three and others - that costs for everyday things would go up if we leave the UK.

"No doubt the nationalists will promise another day of reckoning for these firms, but the people of Scotland are more rational and pragmatic about these things. We don't deny the reality. Being part of the UK keeps costs down for families here in Scotland."

Mr Salmond told Sky News earlier that what he calls an "orchestrated campaign of intimidation" will not work and there will be a "Yes" vote on Thursday.

"The people of Scotland are not going to have big government orchestrating big oil and big supermarkets to tell us we can't run our own country," the First Minister said.

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Scotland Referendum Result 'Too Close To Call'

The latest opinion polls show the Scottish referendum campaign is "on a knife-edge" - with the "Yes" and "No" campaigns ahead in different surveys.

Three polls - all of which exclude undecided voters - give the "No" campaign the advantage on the final weekend of campaigning, but pro-Independence campaigners will be boosted by another which shows them ahead by a large margin.

A poll commissioned by the Better Together campaign and carried out by Survation has the "No" vote on 54% and the "Yes" camp on 46%.

Another, for The Observer newspaper, gives the "No" campaign a six point lead - 53%-47%.

Meanwhile, a poll carried out for The Sunday Times newspaper has "No" on 50.6% and "Yes" on 49.4%.

A poll for the Sunday Telegraph however showed support for independence at 54%, a nine-point swing from their last online poll, with support for the "No" campaign at 46%.

But the poll's sample size - 705 people - means its margin of error is higher than most surveys.

The Sunday Telegraph poll that shows the 'Yes' side ahead

Polling expert John Curtice said the poll came with "a substantial health warning".

Sky's Scotland Correspondent James Matthews said: "It tells us what we already know: this is going to be extremely tight, coming down to the wire, all the cliches fit.

"It really is on a knife edge and the intense campaigning over the remaining days will clearly be targeted at the undecideds, numbering something like half a million, they clearly hold the key to this referendum."

Reacting to the latest snapshots of public opinion, Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland, said: "Taken in the round, the polls show that the referendum is on a knife-edge.

"There is everything to play for, and this will spur on everybody who wants and is working hard for a 'Yes' to redouble their efforts.

The final weekend of campaigning has seen both sides out in force

"As we say in response to all the polls, we are working flat out to ensure that we achieve a 'Yes' vote, because it's the biggest opportunity the people of Scotland will ever have to build a fairer society and more prosperous economy."

The latest polls came after First Minister Alex Salmond hit out at banks and businesses that have warned about the effects of independence.

Deutsche Bank said a "Yes" vote could be a mistake akin to those that sparked the Great Depression, while three more retailers said customers would face higher prices.

Six telecoms companies also released an open letter warning such an outcome could mean increased costs in the industry.

But Mr Salmond said in an interview with Sky News: "The people of Scotland are not going to have big government orchestrating big oil and big supermarkets to tell us we can't run our own country."

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'Great Depression' Warning For Scottish Voters

A leading bank's warning that a Yes vote could be a mistake akin to those that sparked the Great Depression has threatened to overshadow the biggest weekend of political campaigning in Scotland's history.

At least 2.6 million leaflets will be delivered to households in 48 hours as polls suggest Thursday's vote is on a knife-edge.

More than 10,000 people are expected to attend a rally by the Orange Order in support of the Union in Edinburgh - and their cause has been backed by Deutsche Bank.

The financial institution claims the economic arguments against independence are "overwhelming".

Alex Salmond arrives in Dundee on the latest leg of his Yes campaign

Chief economist David Folkerts-Landau said a Yes vote could be a "mistake as large as Winston Churchill's decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failure of the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient liquidity to the US banking system, which we now know brought on the Great Depression in the US".

Mr Folkerts-Landau said he found it "incomprehensible" that Scots were even contemplating withdrawal from the UK, and pointed to the "recessions, higher taxes, lower public spending and higher interest rates" that had afflicted nations seen as potentially heading for the eurozone exit.

But Scotland's SNP Government accused him of failing to take into account the country's "strong fiscal position".

Gordon Brown is applauded after his Glasgow speech supporting a No vote

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will be in Glasgow having promised on Friday to use the occasion to explain what independence will mean for jobs and wealth creation.

She said the Yes campaign's "momentum is still growing and will soon become unstoppable, as people reject the Downing Street-orchestrated campaign to talk Scotland down".

The Yes side was planning to have more than 35,000 volunteers on the streets of Scotland over the weekend, manning 473 registered street stalls.

Meanwhile, Labour big-hitters such as former prime minister Gordon Brown and shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran will be trying to persuade the public to vote No in the country's east.

Yes supporters have grafittied over a No campaign banner

The latest opinion poll by ICM in Saturday's Guardian put decided voters 51-49% in favour of No. 

Many of Britain's newspapers reported on comments by a former SNP deputy leader which appeared to threaten recriminations against businesses that backed a No vote.

Jim Sillars said there would be "a day of reckoning with BP and the banks" if Scotland votes Yes, adding that BP would "need to learn the meaning of nationalisation".

Nigel Farage attacked Alex Salmond but suffered protests from demonstrators

In a fiery interview with Sky News, Mr Sillars said he was simply using "robust" language to draw attention to the "orchestrated fear campaign coming from Downing Street".

Meanwhile, UKIP leader Nigel Farage arrived in Scotland on Friday and used a rally to hit out at what he described as Alex Salmond's "entirely false prospectus" being offered to voters north of the border.

New research revealed increasing polarisation among those on both sides of the border as the vote approaches.

A survey by debt management company PayPlan found a majority of Scots in debt are worried their debts will worsen after independence.

A separate poll among English voters for the Daily Mail found that while 70% want Scotland to stay in the Union, if they do go 53% believed Scotland should not be able to keep the pound, and 83% think Scotland should be forced to take its share of the multi-billion pound national debt.

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